Investor question 46 of 50 · Risk, scenarios & the plan
“What assumption are you least confident about?”
Short answer: the investor is really asking will you be honest? Answer in three steps: (1) pick one real assumption; (2) explain the evidence you have and what's missing; (3) say how the round helps you test it.
What they're really asking
Will you be honest? Investors rarely care about the question on its own. They're testing whether you know your numbers cold, whether your assumptions are honest, and whether you can explain them simply.
How to answer, step by step
- Pick one real assumption.
- Explain the evidence you have and what's missing.
- Say how the round helps you test it.
An example answer
Expansion revenue. We've seen early upsell, but not over a full year. The Base case uses 1% a month; we'd show you the data monthly.
Figures are from Loopdesk, the fictional SaaS company in our sample files. Swap in your own numbers and keep the structure.
The answer that loses trust
Avoid
Saying you're confident about everything.
Where the proof lives
Before the meeting, find the number behind your answer. In our workbooks it lives in: Assumptions, Model Health Score. If you can open that tab and point to it, the follow-up question is easy.